Tilt King

Psychologically I’ve improved leaps and bounds. A good example of this is the heads up match I played today: 100NL on Stars.

I haven’t played heads up for sometime, but after watching some recent Cardrunners videos, it got me motivated again. Anyway, less than 30 minutes in and I’m down 4-buy-ins. Nevertheless, I felt I was playing great poker and had lots of reads on my opponent.

He was quite bad and one of his biggest leaks was that he’d over bet the pot on the turn – by 2 or 3 times – with top pair and a weak kicker! I lost one buy-in with 4-6 on a 2-4-6 board to his 77 – he rivered a set. Then I lost another with AQ on an ace-rag-rag board; only this time he hit the rag on the turn. Anyway, you get the idea: Bad player, high variance. On top of all this, he’s talking trash saying how bad my calls are to his massive over bets, to which I politely reply, “yeah, keep playing like that and you’ll win lots more money.” He replied: “Well I got all night if you have the bankroll before I bust you.”

I know it’s not a bad idea to quit a game like this – especially when your opponent has the momentum – but this player was just too bad and psychologically I was in complete control…not an ounce of tilt.

Anyway, 1 hour later and I’m sitting with $600 and him with $15. No reload this time and he quits. I was only up $100, but it was incredibly satisfying.

Add that to the fact I made $1,700 at 1-2 and 2-4 and it was a pretty good day!

I haven’t really played much this last week actually. I’ve just been really busy with other things outside of poker… oh and playing A LOT of live poker at the weekends.

4-betting essay coming soon…

TB

A look back at November

I was meant to post this Friday… better late than never though!

My basic goal was to play 80 hours online and 40 hours live; I managed 69 hours online and about 45 hours live.

My online play took a bit of a kicking 10 days into the month, causing me to take a very long weekend. Also since changing to crypto I can only average ~350 hands/hr compared to ~500/hr on Stars.

I changed over the database on poker tracker to PostgreSQL so I can no longer make those nice pokergrpaher graphs. Instead, here’s the one from PokerEV:

Yeah, the first 9K hands were sweet, and then it just went to shit for the rest of the month! Most of it is bad ‘all-in’ luck…down about 10 buy-ins from that! Then maybe a little bit of tilt and playing at bad times (tired, not focused, etc). Also I lost about 2,000 hands so the graph is not a true representation really – add another $500 spike during that break even stretch.

I did get some bonuses too, and I’m using some my Stars points to buy all my Christmas presents from Amazon!

Live was pretty much ‘meh’ too. I think I’ve ran pretty bad in the tournaments lately…keep getting deep or making the final table and then missing out on the good money! It’s been a while since I’ve had a good live tournament result, but then again I’ve only played about twenty these last four months.

I’ve been reviewing my game and working hard to plug leaks. Sometimes when you don’t run that well, one of the hardest things is to stay positive and patient. Personally what works well for me a simple little reminder: “Keep making the correct decisions and you bankroll will take care of itself.”

I’ve already played over 1,000 hands today so I might go play the £50 rebuy tonight. I don’t normally play live on Tuesdays, but I really feel like I’m playing well in live tournaments lately (despite the results). After all, I know the results are coming sooner or later!

I did it!

The last few days have been a right pain in the ass…

I started playing on a crypto skin a few weeks ago mostly because of another project I have going on, but also so that I could see what the standard of play is like. Anyway, the deal is that you have to amass 1000 player points in a month to earn 30% rakeback –normally not a problem, but I’ve been playing Stars too and didn’t really keep an eye on it. This all meant that two days ago I still had to get 350 points to get the rakeback!

I must admit, I almost give up yesterday after 3 hours. But I did hang in there and got 6 hours in (almost impossible for me in cash games). I was actually surprised how quickly I got the rest of the way there today. But it’s done now – I did it! Phew.

I’ve been writing a piece on 4-betting this week. It’s almost done so will post it up soon.

Right, I’m taking the weekend off now…except the tournament on Sunday of course.

A quick update…

As you can see from my previous post I ran quite badly the week before last. This prompted a break last weekend, which was good but kind of slowed me down. Other than one live tournament last Sunday I didn’t play at all from Saturday through Monday. I did play the rest of the week – running quite good again – but probably only half as many hands as usual.

I’ve been playing on a few different sites too. The change is really good again but I do miss 100+ hands per table/hr. This week I’ve only averaged 80 hands per table/hr and on that particular site (crypto skin) I can only 4-table. I don’t really mind 4-tabling as oppose 6 or so on Stars; the good thing is that at those hand rates – and only 4-tabling – I feel like I have all the time in the world to think about my decisions! Overall that will make me a much better player.

Today was pretty much a relaxation too; I’ve been to the gym and then spent all afternoon watching the darts on TV. I have a few things to do now, and then I think it’s the local for a few drinks with a bud.

Sundays are fun…I see some of the family for Sunday lunch and then it’s off to the Casino for the tournament. It’s the only live tournament I play these days, but the structure is great. Typically there’s around 8K in the pot and about £2,500 for first.

Wish me luck!

I want to be lucky!

So far November is going well, but the last few days have been a little swingy. I haven’t been feeling so good either whenever I get my money in. I have to change that feeling though – I want to expect to WIN my all-ins and no expect to LOSE them. I guess that just happens when you feel that you’re running bad.

Anyway, just to confirm my instinct I had to run my hands this month through Poker EV to see how well I’ve run in these all-in situations.



So yeah, my all-in luck sucks so far this month!

A lot can still happen yet, so I’m just riding it out.

Later, TB

Got Unstuck

So I’ve not played much online this weekend. That was the plan anyway – grind, grind, grind Monday to Friday and relax some at the weekend.

So what did I do to relax? Well, I played some live poker of course!

Saturday night started out well – up a few buy-ins in the first half hour! Then the following hand came up (1-2PL):

I have AQ of clubs in middle position and raise the pot to £13 (three limpers in front of me). Drunken guy on my left re-raises to £26 – he has about £250 behind and I have him covered. Now there’s no reason to put this guy on a really big hand since he’s been talking some trash and I know he’s coming after me. So I just call and see the flop:

Q – 5 – 2 two diamonds.

Perfect.

I check to let him bet. Sure enough he ‘pots’ it - £61. Now I’m pretty comfortable with my hand in this spot against such an opponent, but just be sure I tank it up for a minute to see if I can get a read. The guy is staring me down so badly! I mean I look at him and he looks back even harder. Under the table his legs are shaking. The guy is drunk too, so all of this could mean nothing. I think about just calling for a second and checking the turn, but my call will look strong and I hate giving free cards. Then again, if he has any sort of hand at all, he’s not laying it down. The SPR (stack-to-pot ratio) is just over 3 – plenty enough for top pair/top kicker against this opponent. So I raise all-in for his other 190 pounds and he snap calls! I turn over AQ and he turns over JJ. Wow! Early Christmas! Well it was until the dealer flipped the turn card…another jack and he takes down the £560 pot!

That was just the start. A few coolers later and I’m down a few buy-ins or so. Normally I wouldn’t mind so much, but the game was REALLY good and I was desperate to take advantage of that; especially since I was down from my last live session too. I even changed seat to have position on the drunken fish that two-outed me. And remember: he’s sitting with almost £600 now! He wasn’t the only one either; there were a whole group of them and they’d each turned their initial £50 buy-in into a few hundred!

After one of them cracked my pocket kings with 67 off-suit he actually got up and left! Good for him really – it was his first time in a casino and probably his first time playing poker. The knock on effect, however, was all the ‘hit and run’ banter. This caused Mr. Jack-Jack to start playing scared money – he really didn’t want to lose his winnings, and especially not to me as now I was back to about £500 pounds again and sitting directly to his left. I was in almost all of his pots and stole about £200 back from him due to his new weak-tight nature.

Finally they all left; most of them still up a few quid. I was about to go home too – about 100 pounds down – until I noticed the 5-5 game was only 4-handed. As an added bonus there were two live ones, one weak-tight regular, and only one decent player. Needless to say – I was in.

We only got to play for about 45 minutes until the game broke, but I did manage to run them over for a few hundred quid. I ended up finishing +£115 for the night. Phew.

After that, I’ll not even bother explaining what happened today. But I did play the tournament. And I did bust out to runner-runner flush…again.

It’s Monday tomorrow – back to the grind.

Finding leaks and changing style

So after moving to Stars last month I really started looking at certain aspects of my game.

Gradually, throughout October, I realised that certain things had to change – finding leaks in your own game can be a very difficult task indeed. I enlisted the help of a coach too; although so far I’ve only taken one lesson.

See Poker Stars has quite a different style of player compared to the Ongame network. Generally, I’ve found the typical Poker Stars player a lot more tight-aggressive then the looser/ laggier players at Ongame. Of course, Ongame is only 5-max…compared to 6-max at Stars. I think the other factor, however, is that a lot more players multi-table at Stars, and at a lot more tables too.

So I guess that’s why Ongame is generally viewed as having some the softest games available, whereas Poker Stars have some of the toughest – I don’t think so.

The games are very different. Yes. But it’s how you approach the games and plan to beat them that make the difference: At Ongame I became tighter and tighter – going from a 26/22 player to 19/16 or so. At Stars exactly the opposite is happening!

I think that’s why I enjoy Stars a lot more: I much prefer a LAG style to a TAG.

Anyway, since making various changes to my game and identifying some leaks, I’ve so far dramatically improved my win rate. It could just be a heater, but I know how hard I’ve worked and how much I’ve changed!

Let’s just wait until the end of the month…

Let’s get blogging!

I haven’t blogged for November yet, so here we go…

So far though, poker is going well.

I couldn’t tell you if I’m up or down for the month yet because I’m trying not to be too results orientated. Short term results mean nothing anyway - if anything paying too much attention to them can only hurt your confidence…If you’re running bad that is.

I’ve played over 5K hands this month and still plan on getting another 500 to 1000 more in today. I really need to work hard on these Mondays to Fridays so that I can relax a bit on the weekends. I prefer to grind 4 hours a day, 5 times a week; than 3 hours a day, 7 times a week. It’s still my goal to get around 40K hands this month.

So I played live last night too. Sure enough it was my turn for the ass whipping! That’s okay…it’s about time anyway. I try my best to keep the fish happy too. After all, it’s what keeps them coming back!

I’ll be posting some more shortly I hope. I plan on writing a few essays this month too. I mean it’s about time I completed part 3 of the SPR stuff! Now’s a good time though. I’m looking forward to going over it again and putting all my thoughts together in writing.

October Graph and November Goals

Okay, October is done. I’m quite happy with the way things went. I may not have made mega bucks but dropping down and moving to Stars was definitely a +EV decision!

Here’s the graph:

Yeah still only 24K hands but I’ve made a lot of changes to my game and playing procedures which in the long run will definitely be worth it. All together I logged 60 hours online with a multi-table ratio of 4.27. My ptbb/100 was 3.8bb/100, but I was down an extra 350BB from ‘all-in luck.’ Most of these coolers were near the end of the month where I had to endure a 7-8 buy-in downswing!

I have a new screen too so that I can extend my laptop. The result is that I can comfortably 6-table now.

So here is what I predict for November:

1) Will play 20 hours a week online: So 40K hands for the month.
2) Going to play mixed limits 100NL to 400NL: 6-tabling probably 3 tables of two different limits. i.e. 3 tables of 100NL and 3 tables of 200NL. Maybe some 400NL later.
3) Will play 10 hours a week of live cash games.

I’m not even really setting these as goals. I basically just do whatever I feel like anyway. However, I’m very confident that November will be my highest playing volume month yet.

Tonight is live cash game night so no more online play today. I guess this is still October so it won’t count towards my 10 hours a week!

Pot Limit Hold’em Graph

It was quite easy modifying the excel sheet to show my live win rate/hr and also ptbb/100 (based on 30 hands per hour). It’s all automatic now.

Overall I ran at 19.88ptbb/100 over the last 214 hours!

I'm actually down for this month, but have only played 3 short sessions! This month has been an online month for the most part.

Still deciding whether or not to go play tonight - the weekends are definately the most profitable.

Later. TB

St*rB$cks

I’ve just finished a one hour session on Stars, my Latte is cold and it’s getting dark outside. Problem is that if I try to head home right now I’m screwed—the traffic is just plain stupid.

I played live last night…it was good!

Seriously, I must be killing that game. I’ve not played very much this month, but I did quite a lot last month. I have all the records for the last 3 months in excel format and I have the records from the last few years on my PDA. At some point I’m going to enter everything into the excel sheet and see exactly what I’ve done. I really don’t know what to expect, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to find I’m beating the game for 10-15ptbb/100. My sample size is not HUGE, but I think it’s enough—I’ll find out when I put it all together. I might be able to put a graph together too!

The game I play is 1-2 Pot-Limit Hold’em. It’s GBP, so you could say equivalent to a 2-4 PL/NL game in the States. The fact that we play Pot-Limit doesn’t really make that much difference. If anything it gives me a greater edge against weak players who don’t know how to build pots and can’t simply go “all-in” when they don’t know what else to do.

We have a 5-5PL game too: I’ve played it a few times but when I chickened out of £1500 pot one night, I realized I wasn’t ready. The more experience I gain the more I realize how over bankrolled I want to be for the games I play in. I can’t wait to play that 5-5 game full time, but I’ve set myself a target in the 1-2 game and only when I achieve that am I moving up. When I do play it though, I’ll be so well bankrolled that +/- 2K night after night won’t even flinch me. There are only a few good players and an aquarium of fish—the kind of guys who wipe out their entire bankroll in one night, but always find a way to return the next—and then we have the guys with more money then sense!

Okay, it’s cappuccino time. Ciao.

A Royal Flush

Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Seat 1: toughbeats ($100.50) - (28.6% / 25.2% / 5.01/ 520)
Seat 2: Mr.Zacard ($100) - ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 3: darkcaller ($152.65) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 4: Bj0nn ($202.20) ( 32.1% / 15.2% / 1.02/ 172)
Seat 5: johnnyk11 ($142.10) ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)
Seat 6: sodapop ($225.30) - ( 0.00% / 0.00% / 0.00/ 1)


PRE-FLOP:

toughbeats posts small blind $0.50
Mr.Zacard posts BIG blind $1
Dealt To: toughbeats


FOLD darkcaller
RAISE Bj0nn ($2)
FOLD johnnyk11
FOLD sodapop
RAISE toughbeats ($8)
FOLD Mr.Zacard
CALL Bj0nn ($6)


FLOP:

Pot: $17.5


BET toughbeats ($14)
CALL Bj0nn ($14)


TURN:

Pot: $45.5


CHECK toughbeats
BET Bj0nn ($180.20)
CALL toughbeats ($78.50)


RIVER:

Pot: $304.2




SHOWDOWN:
toughbeats:

MUCK Bj0nn

toughbeats collected $199 from main pot

SUMMARY:
Total pot: $202 Rake: $3

Final Board:


Seat 1: toughbeats small blind showed [As Qs] and won 199 with a Royal Flush - Net Gain/Loss: ($98.5)
Seat 2: Mr.Zacard big blind folded before Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($-1)
Seat 3: darkcaller folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 4: Bj0nn mucked [6s 7s] - Net Gain/Loss: ($-202.2)

Seat 5: johnnyk11 folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)
Seat 6: sodapop button folded before Flop didnt bet - Net Gain/Loss: ($0)


Free hand converter brought to you by CardRunners

Another Week....

So the weekend is over and yet another week lies ahead…Monday to Friday are the real grinding days!

Yesterday wasn’t the best start but it could’ve been a lot worse! After about 500 hands I was almost 5 buy-ins down due to some pretty sick coolers. The most important thing is that I was playing well, and despite the heavy ass whipping I was nowhere near going on tilt. This has to be one of the most improved aspects of my game I’d say.

Anyway, it wasn’t all bad because I had I pretty good final session leaving me only one and a half buy-ins down for the day over 1200 hands. I was playing super LAG too—having just watched the latest CTS video. Actually I think it works very well at Stars because everyone is multi-tabling and playing so TAG—it’s definitely something I’m going to experiment with.

A look at the month so far...

Here's October so far:

The main thing to note from this graph is the transition from Ongame to Poker Stars - also a drop in limits. It's so obvious that I don't even have to tell you when it was.

Ongame is meant to be one of the fishiest sites out there and Stars one of the hardest! Actually, up until the last few months I had great success at Ongame, rising to and maintaining a +win rate at 2-4NL.

To be honest, I feel that the player database hasn't changed that much - like a sudden influx of cardrunner members! Rather, I just feel like I was burning out there. Also it's quite fidgety to multi-table well. You can't resize the tables properly and the slider is bar is crap, meaning that you're using keys a lot.

Anyway, Stars is a breath of fresh air at the moment! I can easily 6-table there and it looks a lot better. The downside is no rakeback, but I've just bought myself a new - 3rd generation - ipod nano using the FPP's! Oh and a few of those cool looking stress balls, lol.

I'm saving FPP's for a new monitor now or one of the ipod sound stations!

You Crazy Americans!

I’ve just finished a late night session on Stars…

It’s 2am on my side of the pond, but “peak” time in the States. I don’t usually play this late but I can’t believe how bad the play has just been!

4-tabling, I was surrounded my super donks—the kind you only dream about! I know it’s the best the time to play and all, but I was seriously surprised at how good the games can actually be! Yeah, it’s going to be high variance, but super +EV too.

I won tonight’s session for 15ptbb/100. I was running at 30ish, but then some uber donks got lucky. That’s okay though; it’s what keeps them coming back!

New Books

I finally received my latest Amazon order. I thought the package had been lost because it’s a week overdue. I just received an email from Amazon today, actually, stating that they would make a new order free of charge. Five minutes later, some delivery guy is at the door with an Amazon box. Eh? That was fast! Yeah, as you can guess it was actually the original order, so I had to quickly email Amazon again to cancel the new order—I’m such a nice guy…I know.

Anyway, new books include: Poker Tournament Formula (should be well suited to the live games I play); Making time (I’m starting to like this kind of self-help, mind and body shit), and The Psychology of Winning (not a poker book, but another self-help).

I don’t know which I’ll start first. I’ll probably read Poker Tournament Formula in the coffee shop with my Grande Latte’s, and Making time while in bed; just before I sleep.

I never used to be much of a reader really, but that all changed when I started playing poker. I’ve read tonnes of poker books, and if they weren’t strategy, they would be poker novels or biographies. More recently, however, I’ve started branching out.

Anyway, it’s getting late and no more time for blogging!

TB

Alcohol is bad

No, I haven’t just blown half my bankroll during a drunken late night session at 50-100NL. It was 25-50!

Really, though; I’m just kidding. Luckily, I mastered the art of never playing drunk a few years ago. I can safely say that poker is the last thing on my mind when I stagger through the front door these days.

But really, staggering through the front door? Now that can’t be good! That’s exactly what I mean: Alcohol is bad!

So that’s it. I’m giving it up! It’s not that I’m an alcoholic or anything; I’m just fed up getting drunk on a Thursday or Friday and taking all weekend to recover! Hangovers aren’t really that bad for me, but I definitely feel the difference. I mean it screws with my fitness program; It fucks up my diet, and most importantly to the relevance of this blog—it makes be play very little poker for 2-3 days!

I know what you’re going to say:

“Why don’t you just drink less when you go out?”

Well, I wish it were that easy.

Look people…I’m British. We (the British), are well known as a binge drinking nation. To make it worse: I’m a Geordie too. At the end of the day it’s all or nothing (once we start, we can’t stop). Well, for me it’s nothing. That’s it. It’s over. Bababoom!

EDIT: I’m not saying that I’ll never touch another drop of alcohol again; just no more binge drinking! I’ll still drink at dinners and social events, but never again am I going some place just for the sole purpose of getting drunk. J

A quick update

I’ve not blogged in a while, but I hope to be back a lot more soon. Since my last entry I’ve spent most of the time reading forum posts, making notes and playing 6-tables on Stars. I’m still playing there now and enjoying it a lot more. The only downside is no rakeback, but after thinking about it I really like the VIP and FPP program they have. Basically instead of the cash back I can use the points to buy i-pods, books, poker chips, clothes; anything really! I’ve been browsing the catalogue and they have a lot of cool stuff.

In any case I think that’s a very important aspect of poker. I was going to write a separate post on this, but basically it’s the art of balancing poker with life. The point is, what I really like about buying material stuff with the points on stars is that you have something to enjoy and show for your poker playing skill!

Anyway, have to run because I’m playing live tonight – juicy cash games!

Later,
TB

Downswings and Break-even Stretches

It’s no secret that ALL poker players experience downswings. Actually, one could argue that downswings do not exit as such. In fact they are merely an observed pattern in a random variable. Take flipping a coin for example: if you flick it enough times and record the results you’ll see many patterns - consecutive sequences of heads or tails. Poker is a game of high variance and small edges. Downswings and break-even stretches are not only likely; they are inevitable. Coping with a downswing psychologically is one of the most difficult things to do as a poker player.

Here’s one of my favorite quotes (I keep telling myself this when I run bad):

“Everybody will eventually run worse than they thought is was possible. The difference between the winner and a loser is that the latter thinks they do not deserve it.” – Craig Hartman

So what can we do when running bad? Firstly, we have to avoid the pitfalls: playing to get even, or even moving up a level; losing confidence, becoming depressed; making radical changes to our game, or going on tilt!

Obviously tilting is the worst thing a player can do, but avoiding tilt is not the only thing we can do. Dedicating yourself to improving your game is crucial!

Here’s my favorite, most inspirational poker quote:

“I have spent a lot of time playing poker in the past year. I completely immersed myself in poker. I have read every poker book, spent countless hours browsing and reading forums, spent even more hours analyzing my play and my opponents’ plays. And then beyond this I have played endless hours. I really enjoy playing and I think if you don't you will never reach your fullest potential. You really have to love to play the game.” – Brian Townsend

Thanks Brian.

TB

A change of scenery

I’m taking a break from OnGame. I’m going to play at Poker Stars for a while.

I’ve not had any good tourney results in a while so the Stars account has been slowly diminishing. I’ve never played cash games there before; mostly because of rakeback. Anyway they have the FPP and VIP program, so it’s not all bad. There’s a lot of cool stuff you can buy with the points.

The other good thing is that I can 6-table there quite easily; At OnGame I can only do 4. I played 1500 hands today in about 3 hours and ran pretty hot. Hopefully it’s the start of a good month! The only thing I don’t really like is the notes and it’s harder to do good table selection. At OnGame I’ve got all the fish labelled so I can find them in a jiffy!

Anyway, new things are always good. I think I was getting kind of stale at OnGame. I really like 6-tabling for a change too.

I’m quite tired today; its 2:47 and I really should get to bed. I was out for a few drinks last night so didn’t get much sleep. I’m actually quite surprised that I played so many hands today!

Well, goodnight.

Just can’t get a break

When is my luck going to change? Is it luck or am I just bad?

I’ve busted my ass this week playing online and all for nothing. I ran good, hit a downswing; ran good again, and then BAM! The worst downswing of all.

I’m just plain fed up.

Whenever I seem to be playing well and running hot; I run into the most terrible of luck – every time! Just take a look at my luck graph. Bad luck has cost me $2,800 in profit:

Other than cash games I was really disappointed with the $1,000 WCOOP event. Out of 3,500 entrants I finished 500th. Just out of the money! I played for 7 hours and just another 10 minutes or so, I would’ve been in the money for at least $1,300. First place in that tourney was $580,000! Anyway, having an average stack I thought for sure I’d make it into the money. That was until I made a stand with QQ, only for villain to hit a king on the flop with his big slick. Sick. Seriously when will I ever get a break?

WCOOP, bad beats & donkeys

Well, so far I haven’t had much success in the WCOOP. I’m particularly frustrated at the way I went out of the heads up tourney - In the first round might I add!

Man, I was delighted after the first few minutes to see that I had a total fish as an opponent! I mean this guy was call, call, call. Hardly ever raising. If only he wasn’t hitting everything!

The hand I went out on was KK v T8. Flop 8 high and we get it all-in (I was shortish after a few previous bad-beats). Well, you’ll never guess what? Turn a ten! $%!”$%^

Oh well, I’ve already played 1,000 online hands today so I think it’s time to go play some live. We get some right fish in my local game at the weekends!

I really enjoy playing live but running bad can be a bitch! I mean you only get about 40 hands an hour live compared to 400/hr online! That means I’m only getting aces and kings once every 5 hours or so! I play between 1-2 pot-limit and 5-5 pot-limit, but it’s in British pounds - so good games when you convert it to dollars! And like I said most the players are extreme donkeys so it’s lots of fun!

REM, Commitment Thresholds and Stack-To-Pot-Ratios – Part 2

The commitment threshold is a very basic concept. However, I learnt a lot of very important basics from this chapter!

The basic principle is:

“If you aren’t committed, don’t build a big pot.”

They go on to say that if you find yourself all-in and have negative expectation, you probably made a serious mistake. I think that is very important to remember!

Therefore when deciding to make or call a bet that will commit you to the pot, the question is: “Will I be ahead of his range if we get all-in?”

The general rule of thumb can be summed up as:

“Don’t put in one-third or more of the smaller stating stack and then fold.”

Okay so I emphasized that this is only a rule of thumb. THERE ARE MANY EXCEPTIONS! I’ll list the exceptions later.


So now we get to the “Commitment Threshold.” You reach this threshold when the pot becomes one-fourth of the remaining money. An easier way to remember it is:

“Once you put in 10 percent of your stack, you’re at or beyond the commitment
threshold.”

Remember, you’re NOT committed at 10 percent! It’s just a warning that any other big bets made before the river create the threat of a subsequent bet. So basically being at the commitment threshold is the time to decide if you are willing to play a big pot. You make your commitment decision now – before one third of your stack goes in.

“You should never put a third of our chips into the pot without knowing your commitment plan. Make your commitment decision and commitment plan at 10 percent.”

Also worth mentioning here is that against knowledgeable opponents, a sizable bet at the commitment threshold can be a powerful way to bluff them. You’re asking them, “are you read to play for stacks?”

So at the commitment threshold you decide your commitment plan. “Am I committed or am I not?” Your basic strategy is then very simple:

“If you are at the commitment threshold and not committed, don’t make or call a big bet.”

“If you are at the commitment threshold and you want to get all-in, usually bet at least two-thirds the pot.”

Finally, we get to the EXCEPTIONS:

1) You might make a large bet if you bluffing/semi-bluffing.
2) You might make a large bet if your opponent has predictable playing tendencies.
3) You might call a large bet on a draw if the pot odds/implied odds justify the call.
4) You might call a large bet if it closes the action on the river.
5) You might make or call a small bet.
6) You might be committed and put in one-third of your stack, but then new information emerges that changes your decision.

These exceptions are VERY important because once you understand them you will come to realize that the book doesn’t just say that it is wrong to fold after putting more than one-third of the smallest stack in. It’s a lot more subtle than that! Think of all your commitment decisions as conditional commitment. If you are thinking of betting or raising at the commitment threshold but you’re not committed then you just need good reason to do so.

In part three we get to the real juicy stuff: Stack-To-Pot-Ratios!

REM, Commitment Thresholds and Stack-To-Pot-Ratios – Part 1

I’m almost done reading Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em. Overall I’ve extremely impressed. A great book with groundbreaking material!

I read the first 80 pages in a mere 2 hours, but it’s taking me the last two weeks to read the rest of the book! Once past the first two chapters (basics and fundementals), the rest of the book takes considerably longer to read and digest! I probably had to read each subsequent section 3 or 4 times until I had a grasp. The concepts presented in this book have never been written about before!

Now I’m attempting to make notes. Outlining what I’ve learnt the most and reemphasizing those things. This post is basically a list of reminders.

REM (Range – Equity – Maximise):

This chapter wasn’t really so bad to take in.

R is for Range:

I guess the most important point, is that rather than putting opponents on specific hands, you instead put than on a range of hands.

You do this by first eliminating the hands you are fairly sure they don’t have and then you can further narrow their ranges by observing their tendencies.

The more information you can gather on your opponents, the more you can narrow their range and get to perfect information. Observation is key.

E is for Equity:

“Your pot equity is the stake or share you have in a pot, based on the odds of your cards winning at showdown.”

Easy! But how do we calculate equity?

To calculate equity you must first estimate which hand your opponents could have – THEIR RANGES – and how likely each hand in that range is. You can then calculate you equity against each hand individually and determine the weighted average.

EXAMPLE:
An opponent moves all-in preflop and you have AKs. From what you’ve observed you estimate that your opponents RANGE is JJ-AA and AK. Should you call?

You’re have 12% equity against AA, 34% against KK, 46% against QQ, 46% against JJ, 50% against AKs and 52% against AKo.

Overall the weighted average is 42.6%. You should only call if you pot odds are better than 1.35-to-1.

Obviously it’s impractical to do these calculations so quickly at the poker table! In reality you don’t have to be so exact. One of the things I have to help with these calculations is PokerStove software. When reviewing hands I punch in the ranges and let the program tell me the equity. The more of these you do, the better and quicker you’ll estimate you equity at the table.

Also worth mentioning is that you don’t need to have 50% or more equity in the pot to continue. You only need enough to have +EV. So if your equity is 33% against your opponent’s range when he goes all-in, you need pot odds of better than 2-to-1 to call.

Another shortcut is when considering your opponent’s range, think about the hands you are a big favourite over and those hands you are a big underdog to. If there are more hands that you’re a big favourite over, your equity is probably good and vice versa.

Finally, when calculating equity don’t forget to include fold equity! Because few hands make it to showdown, folding equity plays a major roll in most no-limit decisions.

Fold equity varies depending on your opponents’ playing tendencies. Against weak-tight players you have lots of folding equity, whereas against loose calling station you may have virtually none.

Take for example a big draw on the flop where you estimate your equity to be around 50% if you CALL. How much equity might you gain by pushing? That’s why semi-bluffing such a powerful tool. You take the entire pot when your opponents fold and you still have 50% equity when they call.

Using fold equity aggressively can also help when you have a big hand. Say you are very aggressive when you are even-money or a slight underdog. If that aggression leads you to getting a called a few more times when you’re a big favourite, you can gain a lot more positive expectation.

M is for Maximize

Maximizing means choosing the action or series of actions that makes you most money in the long run.

Check, Bet of Fold?

Checking when you are last to act eliminates a round of betting – good it you want to keep the pot small. Check also results in a free card for you or and your opponents – good if you have a weak hand a little folding equity.

Checking also works well when you’re first to act. Say you have top pair and weak kicker against an aggressive opponent who like to steal. By checking the flop, you keep the pot small and let your opponent bet weaker hands.

Whenever you bet or raise, ask yourself: Do you want your opponents in the pot, or do you want them out of the pot?

Value betting is when you think you have the best hand you think you’ll make the most money by betting as oppose to checking.

You goal is to maximize you expectation NOT your chances of being called. Bet the amount that yields the highest average profit!

Bluffing is the opposite of value betting. You bet because you want better hands to fold.

When bluffing bet the smallest amount that will get the job done!

Observing player tendencies is crucial to successful bluffing. You must be able to estimate your opponents range well and know something about how they will play that range. You’re estimating you folding equity.

When maximizing drawing hands, here are the rules of thumb I need to remember most:

If your equity is small (weak draw such as a gutshot), usually avoid semibluff raising. Call if your implied odds are good and fold if they are bad.

If your equity is relatively large, seldom fold. Instead choose between calling and semibluff raising. Call if you implied odds are good and raise if they are bad.

That’s about all. In Part 2 I’ll be making notes on “Commitment Thresholds.”

September Goals

It’s that time again.

This month I decided to mix it up. Recently I started playing a few SNG’s on Stars and found them quite easy to endure. I still want to play more cash so set myself a goal I think I can achieve.

1) Play 25,000 hands at 1-2NL (6 Max)
2) Play 100 x 9-man SNG’s turbos on Stars
3) Write one essay each week
4) Finish reading/studying Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em
5) Qualify for as many WCOOP events as possible
6) Cash big in WCOOP (haha, more of a wish than a goal)

In addition to above, I’ll be playing a few live tournaments and about 10 hours of live cash games a week. That’s just by choice and not a goal.

I’m determined to achieve items 1 & 2!

All Day Session!

No not poker… drinking! Well, it is my best mates wedding after all! Congratulations to Andrew and Danielle! I wish you many happy years of marriage.

It’s 4:17pm: Actually, I escaped a real all day session, so that’s why I’m here killing time. Also, it’s the end of the month, so I have to review the goals I set myself.

I didn’t expect to start so early (drinking). But it was 10:30am and nerves needed calming (not mine of course, but the groom). A round of Bacardi and Jack later… nerves were calm(er).

I don’t have to fill you in on the rest, but I have less than 3 hours until I return for the reception. Erm… double Bacardi diet coke please!

JULY GOALS:

Play 30K hands at 1-2NL.
Err… not quite. Played 14,190 hands.

Achieve 5PTbb/100 hands or better.
A little less. Won 1.22PTbb/100

Review and discuss key hands from each session of play.
Yes. Been doing that successfully and found a few leaks.

Finish reading NLHTAP (Sklansky) - (Well I read it already, but now I'm studying it).
Yep. Now reading professional no-limit hold’em.

Catch up on the Cardrunners videos I've missed.
Been watching videos. But not as many as I would've liked.

Actively participate in the forums.
Yes. But must be more consistent!

Okay, so I didn’t achieve my goals and objectives. I kind of expected that for the first month. I’ve played on and off (because of my job) for the best part of the last five years and always found that it takes a good 1-2 months to fully get into the swing. Usually by then, it’s about time to go away again… and I think that’s where I have been sticking!

I find that playing 1,000 hands a day of cash games is actually quite difficult. I only 3-4 table, so that means about 3 hours of play. I can play other games – donkaments, SNG’s, live etc. – but online cash is hard to play for more than 3 hours. I could increase tables and play six at a time, but my personal preference is three. Sometimes four if they are slow. I find that by playing fewer tables my observation is very good. I’m constantly taking notes and making reads. I think that’s very important if you want to progress to the higher stakes.

Anyway, I may not have done fantastically this month, but I didn’t run great either! For example take a look at my “luck graph” for July:

The red line shows what I should have been winning - had I'd broken even (luck wise). i.e. It calculates my equity based on the hands I was all-in. As you can see I ran like crap! Two hands that stand out are having the big full, all-in against bottom trips. Both times I was rivered by a one outer for 300 BB!

In comparison; look at a longer term graph:

As you can see, the luck factor should always even out in the long run, but lately I’ve just been way under.

In any case, what’s important is how short term luck affects you as a player. For me it’s blah! I realize that in the short term poker is a game of luck, but in the long term it is a game of skill.

It’s only a matter of time before I’m posting a graph the other way round (when I get super lucky), and made like 15bb/100 for the month! Just wait and see… the law of averages dictate it!

Oh, did I mention I crushed my live cash game this month and won multiple satellites into $1,000 tournaments! See, it wasn’t that bad after all!

I’ll be posting September goals later.

TB

Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em

Yep, the book is here! Actually I only got the dispatch email from Amazon yesterday. They said ETD is not until August 28. Well, there’s the Royal Mail for you – good job!

So I’ve read the first 80 pages and all I can say so far is… YESSSSSS! FINALLY A GOOD NO-LIMIT BOOK THAT’S NOT IN SKLANSKLY JARGON. Actually there’s a lot of similarities with some of the idea’s presented in Skalanskys NLHFAP (Obv. cos Ed Miller is co-author). But finally it’s written in plain simple to understand English! Honestly though, I’m really looking forward to reading the rest of this book. So far I’ve only read the chapters on basics and fundamentals: Pot control, stack sizes, position, etc. The best stuff is yet to come! Even those chapters were excellent. Not really anything new, but a good way to reinforce basic theory.

So I’ve not played much cash this week. I tilted a few nights ago and not played cash since! Obviously I’ve tilted before, but this is the first time since I started this blog, etc. Anyway, I was frustrated at breaking even near the end of a 3 hour sessions (1K hands), so I played a few hands I shouldn’t have played and turned a break even session into a -$400! I have to keep telling myself this:

“Poker is all about decisions. Keep making the correct decisions and your bankroll will take care of itself!”

Decision, decisions!

Obviously I started making bad decisions when I was more worried about turning a break even session in to a winning one. I wish I had told myself that then! So don’t worry about winning or losing; just keep make the right decisions and the $$$ will come.

So what did I achieve this week (other than a kick up the ass and a lesson on psychology!)? Well I won satellites into the $1,000 WCOOP (World Champion of Online Poker) event and a $1,000 EPT (European Poker Tour) satellite event. Actually the EPT event is in a few hours. I’ll post here after I qualify :)

TB

3-Betting

Ok, so I changed my mind. I wrote an essay on 3-betting instead!

------------------------------

So your typical LAGTAG (Tight-aggressive player with loose-aggressive tendencies in position) raises from the button. You reraise with 97s from the small blind. LAGTAG calls. Flop K84. You bet 2/3 pot and LAGTAG folds. Easy $$$$$! Or is it?

3-betting and in particular, 3-betting light, is something I’ve been thinking a lot about lately. It’s a concept I’ve been aware of for quite some time, but in all honesty I’ve often used it at the wrong times, against the wrong type of opponents.

See, you can play a solid safe game and just call preflop with certain hands that may be +EV. However, when you’re in the blinds facing a raise from the button, or even from the cut off - what do you really accomplish cold calling with good hands like AQ, AJs, and KQ? A lot of these hands carry reverse implied odds. You’re going to miss the flop most of the time and be forced to fold to a continuation bet. Often you’ll be folding the best hand! Even when you hit… where are you when facing a lot of pressure? Even with small pairs and suited connectors, your implied odds are very bad. Why? Because a late position raiser tends to have a very wide range. When you do hit (which won’t be very often), it’s hard to get paid off. In both cases we lack initiative. What are we going to achieve cold calling OOP with these hands? Maybe a small +EV?

So what about reraising? By 3-betting you take the initiative, you gain momentum and you force your opponent into making a hand. If you don’t win the pot right there, you’ll often take it down with a continuation bet a high percentage of the time. Against some opponents this is +EV right there - even with any two cards! As your more observant opponents realize that you’re capable of reraising light, you’ll increase the action on your big hands too.

So now we’ve established that 3-betting is definitely a good thing; what sort of hands to we want to 3-bet with and against which opponents? Well to give you an exhaustive list, here are the hands I would consider 3-betting with:

Any Pair, Any SC 67+, one gap SC’s 79+, AJ+, KQ.

Occasionally I’ll 3-bet other hands too, like KTs, Q9s, J8s, QJ, JT, T9 and more. However, the situation and opponent must be exactly right.

That’s what it’s all about… I can’t emphasize enough how important player reads are!

Does the button raiser almost never call a reraise? Will they only call with TT/AQ+? Do they call with any drawing hand/pair because they know you sometimes 3-bet light? Do they 4-bet with a wide range? Or you do they mix it up - sometimes calling/4-betting with both ends of the spectrum? Also how do they play after the flop? Are they almost always folding if they miss? Are they capable of raising the flop with air? Along with game dynamics and your own image, these questions largely decide whether it’s best to fold, call or reraise against this opponent in this particular situation with whatever hand you hold.

So as you can see, against some opponents (players with tight calling ranges), AJ might as well be 72o, as basically your 3-bet is a bluff. Their calling range crush you, but you still expect +EV as they fold too way too much preflop. They may also fold QQ, KK etc. on ace high flops, hence why AJ is in fact slight better than 72o.

Against other opponents however (players who call 3-bets with a wide range), AJ may be one of the better hands to 3-bet with, as it has showdown value. Think about opponents who are going to call you with any pair or suited connector. I’m much more likely to 3-bet these guys with AJ than I am with T8s.

In any case, always remember to mix it up. I love it when I find a really weak tight opponent who ALWAYS folds to my C-bet! I’ll hit on these guys all day long, but sooner or later though they’re going to fight back. After 3-betting these guys a few times with air, I’m much more likely to start 3-betting with only the nuts (AA, KK etc), and good drawing hands (suited connectors & small pairs, etc). This way I’ll have a good chance of stacking them when they do play back. And most will play back… eventually.

So 3-betting is definitely a must have weapon to have in your arsenal. Especially moving through the levels you’re going to need it more and more. Just remember that player reads and table image are probably more important than the cards themselves! Pick your moments and feel the game. It’s all about feel! Used correctly 3-betting can drastically increase you BB/100, but used incorrectly and you’ve found a quick way to burn your bankroll!

A week of reflection

Well, this week certainly wasn’t as bad as the last. Just looking at poker tracker stats - I only managed to play 4,000 hands, but averaged 6.34ptbb/100 hands. That’s good for just over $1,000 for anyone who doesn’t know about ptbb/100. Basically a poker tracker big bet is double the big blind for whatever game you’re playing. So for 1-2NL: a bb is equal to 4 bucks. So 6 ptbb/100 would equate to $24 every 100 hands. I play four tables, so average around 400 hands per hour.

I know it doesn’t sound like I really played that much, but what you don’t know about is all the live poker I played too! I think I had three live sessions this week and can’t complain about the results J No such luck in tournaments, however. I should have played in the Poker Stars $1,000 satellite for the London EPT yesterday, but was cruelly robbed by a “runner runner” suck out on my one table satellite! Actually, that was almost one of my goals this month – (to get into the London EPT or WSOPE) – however I don’t want to blow thousands of bucks trying, so left it out! I am still trying, but not as hard as if it was a goal.

So I’ve been working hard on finding leaks in my game. I’ve tightened up my pre-flop play somewhat and adjusted my 3-betting range. I’ve also been looking into continuation bet theory again. All in all, I think I can improve my game tons! Therefore I’m setting myself some new tasks. Every week I’m going to be writing at least one essay about a certain aspect of the game. I’ve came across some great material on 2+2 and Cardrunners. Problem is… there’s just so much of it! So what I’m going to do is put it all together and come up with my own theories. Like I said, I’ve already been looking into pre-flop raising, C-betting, and 3-betting, so I think my first one will be about pre-flop raising.

Oh… did I mention the one-outer that knocked me out of a live tournament today? Ouch!

Running like crap... but life is good!

So reviewing poker tracker stats I’ve grinded almost 11,000 hands this month and still in the RED! *!?”%^*! I here ya… but actually it’s fine. The game has certainly got better (again), so variance, downswings and breakeven stretches are bound to be bigger and longer. I’m actually really happy and not worried at all! Why? Because I KNOW I can, and I WILL beat the game. Not just that, but all other aspects of my life are going well too. I’m working out 6 days a week, eating healthy and constantly stimulating my brain. I’ve became a better person. I’m more aware to world around me, extremely grateful for everything I have and achieved. And I’m thankful for all the goodness yet to happen! I’ll be thankful too when ugly variance evens itself out and I go on a wicked up swing ;) Actually, it’s already happening. Today I’m running at 48.5ptbb/100. Weeeeeee!

Really though, poker wise I recently found a post from Brian Townsend (aka sbrugby or aba20) talking about downswings and breakeven stretches. He reckons that climbing up the stakes he had about 3 breakeven stretches a year, lasting about 20,000 hands each! Many people agree this is normal and looking closely at my poker tracker stats I probably agree too. I mean I’ve had Pocket Rockets, American Airlines, Bullets – call them what you will – forty eight times and only made pittance!

Well, I got some new books to work through too. Not just poker, but some real ones too! ‘The Game’ by Neil Strauss came into conversation and it now seems that half the Cardrunners community have all gone out to buy it! Or at least like me, ordered from Amazon. But hey… don’t you find that whenever you go to Amazon looking for a book, you always end up buying four? Hmm, maybe it’s just me. Well, they offered me this ‘deal’ where if I bought ‘God is a Woman’ together with ‘The Game’ I’d be saving some money. Then I realized the latest No-Limit Hold ‘em book was available now too (Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em: Volume I). Apparently it’s really good and a much easier read to Sklanskly, so I’m really looking forward to that. Oh, and I bought ‘The Poker Mindset.’ It’s more about the psychological side to the game, so something different I guess.

So Tuesday is normally my home game night. I started playing a few weeks ago with some friends on my buddy’s new table. Nice one Dan! Anyway, they are complete fish so the winnings will normally pay for my bottle of Bacardi :) Tonight I’m planning on introducing a 10p – 20p cash game. Lol!

August Goals

I didn't post em yet. But quickly, here they are:

1. Play 30K hands at 1-2NL.
2. Achieve 5PTbb/100 hands or better.
3. Review and discuss key hands from each session of play.
4. Finish reading NLHTAP (Skansky) - (Well I read it already, but now I'm studying it).
5. Catch up on the Cardrunners videos I've missed.
6. Actively participate in the forums.

That's about it. A nice easy month to get back in the swing. It's tempting to jump straight back to 2-4 or 3-6NL but I'm sticking to this months targets. No moving up until I've played 30K hands. And of course a decent bb/100 rate!

More later... time for a relaxing night out on the town.

Poker Quotes

Some random quotes:

"Trust everyone, but always cut the cards." - Benny Binion

"If luck wasn't a factor, I'd win every one." -Phil Hellmuth

"If you can't spot the sucker in the first half an hour at the table, then you are the sucker." -Rounders, the movie (2000)

"I swear to god if you beat me and i will get my gun out of the car and kill you... and your family." -Uncle Remus

"The next best thing to gambling and winning is gambling and losing." -Nick "The Greek" Dandalos

A note on the 'Gramma'

I'm not a writer and I don't claim to be. In fact my writing skills suck! I've always been better with numbers than with words... and probably always will be.

There we go. I can make a whole list of reasons why I should keep a blog:

1) To improve my writing skills!

2) To set myself goals and targets.

3) To review my play and progress.

4) To bitch about bad beats (I'll try to keep that to a minimum, honest!)

5) To keep a diary of my rise to the top!

In the beginning...

So for those of you who don't know me; let me tell you a bit about myself. As mentioned in my profile, I'm British and originally started out life as a cadet in the Merchant Navy. After 10 years of that I achieved an Unlimited Masters certificate and worked my way to a First Officer on cruise ships. The job is great (albeit hard work sometimes... no most of the time), but the nice thing about it, was that with my regular schedule of working 3 months on and then 2/3 months off I basically had 5-6 months a year to concentrate full time on my passion - POKER!
Ever since I was a kid I was fascinated with cards, coins, magic, and casinos. I remember the first book I ever read about poker was Amarillo Slim's 'Play Poker to Win.' This guy talked about guys like Puggy Pearson and Doyle 'Texas Dolly' Brunson! It wasn't until quite a few years later in the Bellagio that I would see these guys with my own eyes! And to think... when I first read that old book, I figured all these guys must be dead already. Well, how wrong could I have been!

I had my first taste of gambling when I was about 10 years old. My dad give me 20p to bet on a horse (well, he did the betting - I just picked it). All I could think of was how to win the most $$$ so I picked the outsider at like 20 to 1. Sure enough... it won! I was hooked. Every Saturday I'd have the Racing Post at 7am and study until noon. I would triple my pocket money or go home with none! It was like that for years. To be honest, I probably lost, but it was only pennies, so who cares. By the time I was 16 I was going to the bookies myself, but that was about the same time I went away to sea for the first time. As soon as I was 18 I went to my first casino. I'd already learnt blackjack at home (including card counting) and was ready to 'bring down the house!' Well, as you can imagine that never happened! The rules suck in the UK and they play with 6-8 frigg'n decks (now they all use card shufflers).

It was during my occasional visits however, that I noticed poker being played in the corner. I would stand and watch for hours, wondering where the hell these guys get all that money from! The game was self dealt and a mixture of chips and cash. Dealer’s choice - Hold'em, Omaha, Irish, you name it... they played it. I could smell the money, but I knew it would take a lot of time and effort before I'd be sitting in that game.

I put it off for a few years, but finally online poker kicked off and I bought a few good books. I turned my first $100 deposit into a few thousand and then back down again. I guess it's just progressed from there. I play brick and mortar a lot now too. Incidentally, with the same guys I used to watch when I was 18. Only it's me sitting their now with the pile of cash and these old timers wondering how these 'young guns' get so good, so quickly. I've probably played more hands online then some of these guys have played in their whole lives! I owe my progression to online poker, forums and training sites like Cardrunners.com. They know it too, but they're just too damn stubborn to change. Well, their loss, my gain!

So that brings me to the present and the year ahead. I've talking about taking year off for a while now, but I guess it's just a matter of biting the bullet. See, problem is I've always felt that with my job I takes two steps forward (when I am home and playing all the time), and then one step back (when I'm away and playing a very limited amount). Well, I figure if I'm going to become the best poker player I can possible be then I have to do it full time... for at least a year. So here we go, it all starts now. Wish me luck!